Monthly Archives: August 2012

Crazy 4 Poker Hole-Card Play

Posted on August 29, 2012 | Leave a comment

Crazy 4 Poker (C4P) has been among the most popular proprietary table games for many years.  The only games that have had more placements in Las Vegas over the last 5 years are Three Card Poker and Let-it-Ride. It follows that advantage players are going to give this game a very close look.  C4P has the key ingredient for a hole-card weakness: the player gets to make a strategic decision (fold/raise 1/raise 3) after the player and dealer receive their cards. The problem for the AP is that the amount of information that one hole-card yields is not enough to swing the edge his way. Continue reading →

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Four Card Poker Bad Beat Bonus: Faulty Math

Posted on August 26, 2012 | 1 Comment

I received the following question through the game submission form:

I asked at Wizard of Vegas (WOV) in this thread to analyze the probabilities for Four Card Poker’s (FCP) Bad Beat Bonus (BBB) wager.  The game boasts a house edge of 20.3% but WOV’s analysis came to 19.5%.  They felt it was due to Shuffle Master computing the odds by evaluating each hand as if it came from a separate deck.  By that I assume they mean that if the dealer has Quad Kings, there is no way the player could have the same hand. Does this mean that all of Shuffle Master’s games are calculated this way and that all their “bonus wagers” are actually offering a house edge that is slightly lower than what is advertised? Continue reading →

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Four Card Poker Hole-Card Play

Posted on August 25, 2012 | 1 Comment

During the hold ‘em poker craze that began when Chris Moneymaker won the World Series of Poker in 2003, there was a rush to bring poker variants to the casino floor.  Four Card Poker (FCP) was introduced in the height of the poker craze. For several years it wasn’t clear which poker games would succeed.  The market has mostly shaken out in the poker genre and FCP is one of the few survivors. Today it has more than 200 placements. Continue reading →

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Insurance pays 2.2-to-1

Posted on August 24, 2012 | 1 Comment

I received the following question through the game submission form:

There is a current policy involving Blackjack payouts and insurance at my casino. When a player has a natural 21 and betting a 50¢ piece they are paid $1 opposed to 75¢ due to not having 25¢ cheques. Also when a player has a bet of say $5.50 and they insure for $2.50 and win the insurance bet they are paid the 2 to 1 as well as keeping the 50¢ cheque of their initial blackjack bet since they, due to the lack of 25¢ cheques, cannot insure for full. The question I pose to you is with this policy how much does this cut into the house edge on Blackjack? Continue reading →

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Your Game Submissions Welcome

Posted on August 19, 2012 | 1 Comment

If you have a table game or side bet you would like analyzed for advantage play, please consider submitting it for review. You could be someone in casino management or surveillance with concern about a game that is not holding well. Or maybe you were hit hard and you don’t know why. You could be an inventor or licensor who is trying to get good information or to reassure clients. You could be an AP who doesn’t mind the details getting out into public view. You could be a spectator who is just wondering out loud. Regardless of the reason, I need your game! Continue reading →

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Edge Sorting in Baccarat

Posted on August 18, 2012 | 4 Comments

An AP who wants to edge sort in baccarat is like a Sumo wrestler who wants to perform ballet: just because he wants to do it does not mean it is possible. In most baccarat games, the player doesn’t touch the cards. When the player is allowed to turn over the cards, it is usually done with the finesse of a drunken elephant; the cards rarely survive the ordeal.  In many casinos, pre-shuffled shoes are brought into play. In the situation where the cards are re-used, getting the cards to be correctly oriented is yet another challenge. After all that, if somehow the shoe does get sorted, if the shuffle includes a turn then an edge sorting scheme will unilaterally fail. Then there is the final obstacle: how can edge sorting possibly work if the AP can’t see the first four cards before placing his bet? Continue reading →

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Let it Ride Hole-Card Play

Posted on August 17, 2012 | Leave a comment

Let it Ride is a game that has been in casinos since the time of the dinosaurs. Because the dealer is dealt two face-down cards, the question of hole-card play naturally arises. Back in 2002 at a Las Vegas strip casino, I found a dealer exposing a hole-card, but at the time had no idea how to play against it. I hardly knew the rules of the game and certainly had no clue about the strategy, so I passed the game by. In all the years since, I have never spotted another dealer exposing a hole-card on this game. The reason is simple: the dealing procedure has the dealer burning the bottom card of the three-card packet he deals himself. Because the bottom card is the one most likely to be exposed, multiple errors must be made for the AP to get a view. Continue reading →

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Beating the Royal Match Blackjack Side Bet

Posted on August 14, 2012 | Leave a comment

The Royal Match (RM) wager is one of the oldest blackjack side bets still available. It pays if the player’s first two cards are the same suit. If the cards form the rare hand KQ suited, then there is a premium payout.  It is intuitively clear that there must be situations where the player has the edge. Quantifying the value that can be obtained through practical methods is where the work of the AP begins. Continue reading →

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Card Counting the Dragon Side Bet in EZ Baccarat

Posted on August 13, 2012 | 1 Comment

The Dragon Side Bet for EZ Baccarat is simple to describe. This side bet pays 40-to-1 if the dealer’s three-card total of 7 beats the player, otherwise the bet loses. In September, 2011, I realized that this side bet was vulnerable to a card counting methodology of advantage play. I worked over the next few days to evaluate the appropriate systems and their value.

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Baccarat: The Known Card

Posted on August 13, 2012 | 4 Comments

Though the game of baccarat appears quite safe to the untrained eye, there are many ways that APs attack baccarat. Some of these methods are targets of opportunity, for example dealers who expose the first card of the next round. Others occur because of perks for high rollers, like dead-chip or loss-rebate programs. There are APs who negotiate specific rule changes that allow methods like edge-sorting. Some APs take advantage of long-standing procedural flaws, like the ribbon spread.  And then there are all the other ways, whatever they are. This post concerns the “known card.” Continue reading →

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