A Baccarat Dis-Advantage Play

Once in a while I stumble on something in the inter-webs that draws my attention because it appears to be sensible and mathematical and worthy of scrutiny. I am always open to new possibilities. Such was the case with this odd tweet from JSTAT @Casino_Examiner : Continue reading

A Baccarat Promotion Designed for Advantage Players

Recently I became aware of a very unusual baccarat promotion when details about it were posted on the Wizard of Vegas website (see this thread). What was especially odd was that the post was made by a well-known high-level advantage player (who goes by the moniker ssho88). This AP was seeking confirmation of computational results made by a member of his team. In fact, he specifically asked for me to double-check his teammate’s work. Naturally, I agreed. As long as the AP understands that my work will be posted in a public forum, I have no problem with such requests. I can only surmise that by the time this post is published, his team will have completed their play and will be several hundred thousand dollars richer and many miles away. Continue reading

If the IRS Gets Its Way, Players Should Revolt

I am beside myself with disgust at the thought of the IRS using casino player’s cards to track slot winnings. My main objection has nothing to do with the burdens and costs such a draconian regulation would place on the casino industry. There is that, of course, and I am behind those arguments 100%. My opposition is fear based: I simply don’t trust businesses, whether public, private or governmental, to safeguard my personal and financial information. That distrust certainly includes casinos. … continued here:

http://cdcgamingreports.com/commentaries/working-title-if-the-irs-gets-its-way-players-should-revolt/

Advanced Advantage Play Seminar in Las Vegas, July 7, 2015

If you haven’t yet signed up for the seminar that Bill Zender and I will be presenting on Advanced Advantage Play next month, I’d like to invite you to register today.  The seminar will be held on Tuesday, July 7, 2015 at the Tuscany Suites Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas. Continue reading

Escaping the Expensive Legacy of Edward Thorp

“The advantage in two-handed blackjack, long supposed to lie with the dealer or the house, was converted recently to the profit by Edward O. Thorp, a young assistant professor in the mathematics department of New Mexico State University.”

The Atlantic Monthly, June, 1962

A couple of weeks back, the topic of movie star Ben Affleck’s card counting at the Hard Rock Casino in Las Vegas came up yet again in an article titled “Ben Affleck and Jennifer Garner on the rocks – gossip mags say, More than a half-century after Edward Thorp’s discovery rocketed him to fame, it’s clear that both the entertainment and casino industries are still obsessed with card counters. But at what cost? … continued here:

http://cdcgamingreports.com/commentaries/escaping-the-expensive-legacy-of-edward-thorp/

Card Counting the Lucky 8 Baccarat Side Bet

Lucky 8 (L8) is a baccarat side bet I first heard about on the Wizard of Vegas website in this thread. As the name implies, a Player/Banker final total of 8 is key to winning this bet. It should therefore come as little surprise that L8 is highly vulnerable to card counting, with 8’s being the key-card for a counting system. For the interested reader, here is a reference to L8 in the UK, and here is a document from the State of Washington.

Continue reading

Three Card Poker Hole-Card Play: Update #1

One of the first posts I made to this blog was on hole-carding Three Card Poker (3CP) (see this post). Recently, I was re-reading some old posts, and realized that there was a lot of information missing from that post. I am a numbers guy, and that post contains no computational results. This post addresses the deficiencies of my original post. Continue reading

Ultimate Texas Hold’em Hole-Card Play: One Dealer Card, One Turn/River Card

When an AP finds a dealer on Ultimate Texas Hold’em (UTH) who is vulnerable to hole-carding, it is not unusual for her to expose the bottom card of every packet of cards she delivers. This includes exposing one of her two hole-cards as well as one of the common cards. Depending on how the common cards are spread and turned over, the exposed common card will then either be a Flop card or it will be a Turn/River card. This post considers the situation when the AP sees one dealer hole-card and one Turn/River card. I previously wrote about the situation when the AP sees one dealer hole-card and one Flop card, where I showed that computer-perfect play gives an edge of 22.3286% (see this post). Continue reading

Foxwoods Survives Edge Sorting Lawsuit from Phil Ivey’s “Queen of Sorts” Accomplice, by Maurice VerStandig

I just finished reading what is, by far, the most well-written and thorough article on the recent dismissal of the lawsuit filed by Cheung Sun against Foxwoods regarding the confiscation of her edge sorting winnings in 2011. You’ve got to read this.

In a significant – if not procedurally unusual – victory for Foxwoods, a federal court in Connecticut has entered judgment against a group of individuals who sought to recover monies putatively won through edge sorting at a mini baccarat table. This draws to a close – at least for the time being – the suit by Cheung Yin Sun, the so-called “Queen of Sorts,” who gained wider notoriety for allegedly helping Phil Ivey take the Borgata for just shy of $10 million in a series of gaming sessions that are themselves the subject of separate, and largely unrelated, litigation. But those looking for a clean answer as to whether edge sorting falls within the allowable realm of savant-like card counting, or the illicit realm of sticking light wands down the coin mechanisms of slot machines, will be disappointed, as the ultimate disposition of this New England affair has little to do with edge sorting, and much to do with the idiosyncrasies of tribal gaming and American civil procedure.  Continued here … 

http://www.pokernews.com/news/2015/06/foxwoods-survives-edge-sorting-lawsuit-21794.htm

Seven Lost Posts

I have written so many posts, honestly, I’ve forgotten more than I ever knew. I can hardly imagine someone stumbling on my blog and knowing what to look for amid the mass of analysis for so many games. I went through my posts recently and came up with a short list of seven lost posts that deserve a re-boot. These are posts that didn’t make it to my book (Advanced Advantage Play) and don’t get many views, but I think they contain great information and they deserve a read (or second-read).

Here you go — the lost posts: Continue reading